01 Apr Sunday April 2 – BaseWinner Crunch
Opening day is here! We have a lean on the Giants, but not enough to make it a play. We’re going to enjoy opening day (without any bets)!
Pro note: A key decision you have here, right out of the gate. “It’s opening day, we have to have a bet!”
After being around professional handicapping for a number of years, it’s so clear to see. You really have to decide: Are you in this for fun, or are you in this to make a legitimate profit?
Honestly, it is hard to do both.
If you are trying to make a legitimate profit, discipline every day, all season long is so so so important. Our goal is 10* of profit each month. That is very easily wiped out by 1-2 days of ill-advised wagers.
Back by popular demand, I will be updating a shared Google doc everyday that uses Kelly Criterion to determine optimal bet sizing. We will be using 1% plays (very few 2% and some smaller than 1%).
1% meaning 1% of your true bankroll you have earmarked for this venture. Be careful not to bet too much. Bad stretches can happen and we need to be prepared to withstand them. 1% plays protect our bankroll while allowing for solid upside on the positive variance stretches/seasons as well.
If you are in this more for entertainment, that is perfectly fine as well. Have fun with the numbers and be creative in building your own systems. STILL…be very careful with your bet sizing. The majority of recreational players bet far too much of their bankroll on individual plays. It’s a dangerous game as even a 55% dice could hit a losing streak of 10+ from time to time.
I apologize for the long sermon, but from what I can tell, the reality is, only about 3% of people win at betting sports in the long term. To enter that 3% (if that is your goal), it takes a certain mentality and skill set. We will continue doing our best every day to give you the more accurate and predictive numbers in the game.
OK…With our annual PSA out of the way, let’s have a great season!! We have some amazing new developments in the works. First off, our data science department is advancing by the day. We will be actively working on live betting modules (and live streaming shows) within the first few weeks of the season. We’ll launch the member only live bet chat room soon as well, similar to what we did for NFL.
We will also be announcing a contest in the next few days, where you can select 1 (and only 1) team to “specialize” in (betting on or against, over or under). We are looking for team specific experts in the coming years, and this is your opportunity to shine! It will be free to enter and prizes you can win. More info to come.
Cheers to a great 2017!
Note: Our first ‘Daily Crunch’ podcast will be Sunday (talking Monday games). We will take a deep dive into all these categories and everything on these sheets!