04 Sep Sept 5 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner reviews the YTD, monthly and previous week’s results, gives you a couple of plays for the post-season and goes into depth into the Cleveland Indians post season odds.
Basewinner goes over the MLB post-season probability tree so you can see what needs to be done to accurately price the post-season.
A sneak peak at all 5 games of the BOS v CLE probable playoff match and all 4 probable NLDS series odds if they were to play today.
Also NFL Crunch is quickly previewed and rest-of-season team projections are touched on a bit.
Official Plays [TUE Sept 5]:
.67* 902 PIT +176
.67* 904 CIN +116
.67* PHI/NYM under 8 -110
.67* 911 ARI +110
.67* 918 BOS -174
.67* 919 MIN +127
.67* 922 DET +128
.67* 926 OAK +130
.67* 928 SEA +149
.67* 930 ATL -121 (scratch- pitching change)
Note: We are “risking” 1% on favs and underdogs. Not “to win” 1%.
Note: Make sure the line still provides 10+ points of value (your betting line vs the BW projected spread)
Over the next couple months, you may notice we have passed on a few games that appear to have a significant line value difference. This is based on Mark’s research into a similar game model to filter out certain plays. We will start sharing some of these correlation studies on upcoming shows!