11 Sep Sept 12 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner summarizes a whole slew of numbers and projections and reviews the BW record.
BW goes into rest of season MLB team projections and then looks at the Arizona D’Backs future ride into the post-season.
He reviews the theory on the D’Backs catching the Dodgers and examines the math behind this.
Basewinner reviews the D’Backs MLB post-season probability tree so you can see what the true percentages are for each of this team to have any significance in October.
Also, a nice look at each team’s remaining strength of schedule and overall team strength by the BW numbers.
Official Plays [TUE Sept 12]:
.67* COL/ARI under 9.5 -115
1* 972 CLE -385
.67* 973 SEA +109
.67* CHW/KC over 9.5 -115
.67* 979 SDP +159
Note: We are “risking” 1% on favs and underdogs. Not “to win” 1%.
Note: Make sure the line still provides 10+ points of value (your betting line vs the BW projected spread)
Over the next couple months, you may notice we have passed on a few games that appear to have a significant line value difference. This is based on Mark’s research into a similar game model to filter out certain plays. We will start sharing some of these correlation studies on upcoming shows!