Our team of programmers have been crunching our databases that now contains advanced situational stats and forecasts for all 600+ projected batters and 500+ pitchers. We focused on the key question relevant to baseball betting: What actionable information can we pull out of this massive data-set?
Our approach is to simplify complex sabermetrics into actionable info. Our team has devoted hundreds of hours researching to identify the best opportunities for profit.
In trading, you only need two variables in place to wind up on top: a slight statistical advantage and a long enough timeline. The confusing nature of sabermetrics in baseball creates a statistical advantage, and the long grind of a 162 game season gives us time.
The primary method of doing this is to weigh key performance statistics by their predictive ability. That is, their ability to predict future performance rather than describe past ability.
At a high level, we use 3 core sabermetrics to predict future performance. The three metrics (that we have broken down further) you may be familiar with as a fan and a bettor. These are xFIP for pitching, Runs Created for batters and Defensive Runs Saved for fielding.
Our team has advanced and expanded these numbers with unique weighted calculations. The result is four of our most important and predictive metrics – Starter Adjusted Runs Allowed Runs (bwSPxERA), Relief Adjusted Runs Allowed (bwRPxERA), Adjusted Base Runs Created (bwRC) and Fielding projections (bwFLD).
We have also broken them down into the four main splits for batters – Home, Away, vs. Left, and vs. Right. These splits are essential to weigh correctly and are relevant and special to baseball betting.