Updated 2019 EPL model – Featuring expected goals handicapping: probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)
Riley also goes into his new *Tactical* rating system, attempting to quantify:
- Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
- Fluidity Net = Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
- Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
- Defense Efficiency = Expected goals allowed / Opp Possession
- Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game
How to bet on EPL Soccer – Overview
EPL Soccer Betting Model – Player Ratings Video
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