NFL Week 5 (Members)

NFL Week 5 (Members)

Full NFL Week 5 Overview:

 

Full Overview

 

Key:
Vegas: Betting Line (at sportsbooks)
Money: Betting Moneyline (at sportsbooks)
CDS Spread: Our projection of what the spread should be
CDS PTS: Our projection of total points scored by each team
CDS ML: Our projection of what the moneyline should be
AP v HDP: Away Team Passing Rating vs Home Team Pass Defense Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
AR v HDR: Away Team Rushing Rating vs Home Team Rush Defense Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
ADP v HP: Away Team Pass Defense Rating vs Home Team Pass Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
ADR v HR: Away Team Rush Defense Rating vs Home Team Rush Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
TRUE: True talent rating for entire team combined (100 average, higher is better)
TOM: Turnover margin for the season

 

 Update: Removing Indy -1.5. Too many strength of schedule factors pointing to SF being underrated.

Week 5 Official Plays

  • Update: INDY -1.5 -110 (Bought out: SF +1.5 -110): NO OFFICIAL POSITION
  • 1* 1H GB/DAL under 26.5 -110 L
  • 1* 1H KC/HOU under 23 -120 L
  • 1* KC/HOU under 45 L
  • 1* 1H SEA/LAR under 23.5 -115 W
  • 1* 1H Jax/Pit under 20.5 -120 W

You can view the official log of plays here: 2017 NFL Record & Play Sheet

 

Live Plays

  • 1* CLE pk -120 2H P
  • 1* CIN -1.5 -110 2H W
  • 1* TEN 2H pk -125 W

 

Week 5 Leans (based solely on CDS projections):

  • LAC +3.5 W
  • Indy -1.5 W
  • AZ +6.5 L
  • CAR +3 W

 

Note: I am going to have 1*, 2*, and 3* plays for NFL this year. But this sizing does not carry over from MLB. We are using a much smaller overall bankroll for NFL compared to MLB. Our NFL product is still relatively new compared to the steady results of MLB. For instance .67* in MLB should be a bigger overall bet than 2* NFL. If I used a 10k bankroll for MLB, I would probably use a 3k bankroll for NFL (play sizes of $30, $60, $90).

 

Resources:

-NFL Record (2017 Clear Data Sports): Google Sheet

-NFL Statatuba (Full game): http://statatuba.com/NFL/BasicLines

-NFL Statatuba (1st Half)http://statatuba.com/NFL/firsthalflines

 

New England v Tampa Bay

New England v Tampa Bay

LA Chargers v NY Giants

LA Chargers v NY Giants

Buffalo v Cincinnati

Buffalo v Cincinnati

NY Jets v Cleveland

NY Jets v Cleveland

Jacksonville v Pittsburgh

Jacksonville v Pittsburgh

Tennessee v Miami

Tennessee v Miami

San Francisco v Indianapolis

San Francisco v Indianapolis

Arizona v Philadelphia

Arizona v Philadelphia

Carolina v Detroit

Carolina v Detroit

Seattle v LA Rams

Seattle v LA Rams

Baltimore v Oakland

Baltimore v Oakland

Green Bay v Dallas

Green Bay v Dallas

Kansas City v Houston

Kansas City v Houston

Minnesota Chicago

Minnesota V Chicago

No Comments

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.