NFL Week 4 (Members)

NFL Week 4 (Members)

Full NFL Week 4 Overview:

Special Note: I am going to post 2 different sets of projections this week. The first is using our original player/unit ratings going into the season. The second is now updated to include 3 weeks of data this season (weighted about 65% of last season data, and 35% this season). So this week, I am looking for plays that both set of projections agree with. The Bears tonight are a good example of a “stay-away” game. Original projections set that line GB -3, but now new ratings set the line GB-10. And the (PFF) player ratings are certainly not perfect, so as a team we are still not entirely convinced if it’s better to use the longer term individual player ratings or weigh more of the shorter term. I tend to lean towards the longer term, but can see an argument for shorter term as well, especially in the case of a nagging injury. Anyways, this Thursday game is an easy “lay off” for these reasons. Also these projections to not take into account injuries. GB will likely be missing BOTH Tackles on the OLine. Very bad for them. 

I will explain and show more on the video pod Friday morning! 

After Player/Unit Updates (probably a better projection):

 NFL Overall week4
Before Player/Unit Updates:
NFL Projections - Long term
Key:
Vegas: Betting Line (at sportsbooks)
Money: Betting Moneyline (at sportsbooks)
CDS Spread: Our projection of what the spread should be
CDS PTS: Our projection of total points scored by each team
CDS ML: Our projection of what the moneyline should be
AP v HDP: Away Team Passing Rating vs Home Team Pass Defense Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
AR v HDR: Away Team Rushing Rating vs Home Team Rush Defense Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
ADP v HP: Away Team Pass Defense Rating vs Home Team Pass Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
ADR v HR: Away Team Rush Defense Rating vs Home Team Rush Rating (100 average; higher better for offense, lower better for defense)
TRUE: True talent rating for entire team combined (100 average, higher is better)
TOM: Turnover margin for the season

 

Week 4 Official Plays

  • 2* MIN -1 -120 L

 

You can view the official log of plays here: 2017 NFL Record & Play Sheet

 

Live Watch

  • Not much. Key injuries keeping me off Carolina

 


Week 4 Leans (based solely on CDS projections):

Car +9
AZ -6
Indy +14
Wash +7

 

Note: I am going to have 1*, 2*, and 3* plays for NFL this year. But this sizing does not carry over from MLB. We are using a much smaller overall bankroll for NFL compared to MLB. Our NFL product is still relatively new compared to the steady results of MLB. For instance .67* in MLB should be a bigger overall bet than 2* NFL. If I used a 10k bankroll for MLB, I would probably use a 3k bankroll for NFL (play sizes of $30, $60, $90).

 

Chicago v Green Bay

Chicago v Green Bay

New Orleans v Miami

New Orleans v Miami

Carolina v New England

Carolina v New England

LA Rams v Dallas

LA Rams v Dallas

Detroit v Minnesota

Detroit v Minnesota

Tennessee v Houston

Tennessee v Houston

Jacksonville v NY Jets

Jacksonville v NY Jets

Cincinnati v Cleveland

Cincinnati v Cleveland

Pittsburgh v Baltimore

Pittsburgh v Baltimore

Buffalo v Atlanta

Buffalo v Atlanta

NY Giants v Tampa Bay

NY Giants v Tampa Bay

Philadelphia v LA Chargers

Philadelphia v LA Chargers

San Francisco v Arizona

San Francisco v Arizona

Oakland v Denver

Oakland v Denver

Indianapolis v Seattle

Indianapolis v Seattle

Washington v Kansas City

Washington v Kansas City

 

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