NFL Football Handicapping Model

2018 NFL Model Updates: 

Our 2018 NFL projections are ready.

Take out the bad BaseWinner jokes, replace them with cheesy song injections and questionable audio quality…YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS:

Metrics Mike is back with some real f*ck*n FOOTBALL content.

2017 Recap:


99% of winning sports bettors (the 1-2% that are out there) don’t do any media.  They hide, paranoid about anybody learning anything about what they do. Edge preservation is critical to their strategy (rightfully so).

We take different approach. Our perspective of sports betting is that it’s really hard to beat, especially over the extreme long term. Edges will evaporate faster than you want them to. Models that historically preform well, will regress to the mean the very moment you start to feel confident and increase bet size. We’ve all been there.


But it’s not impossible.


If you enjoy sports analytics, decision analysis, and you are ready to use your brain to out-maneuver the market, this can be a fun, challenging, and rewarding hobby.
Learning to build a efficient data collection process is what matters. Learning to effectively apply the latest advances in statistics, probability, and machine learning is what will separate the 99% from the 1.


Our goal is to build a community of intelligent sports handicappers, combining the wide range of skills required. Not everyone has to be a math expert.


We have an elite data warehouse pro helping to collect and store the ever increasing amounts of data available. We have an award winning designer helping to get us out of excel and into an interactive web interface. We have a doctor helping to keep our records updated (perhaps not the best use of his skill set, maybe we need to reassess this one). We have a roster technician, keeping our starting lineups updated each day as injury/changes occur.

Clear Data Sports- Chat RoomWinning at sports betting is not a solo endeavor. 


That leads us into this season… It’s time to take this concept about 10 levels deeper.


Let’s build an army of team-specific handicappers for the NFL.


Your mission, if you choose to accept, will be to know your team better than anyone. Be familiar with the player grades of all your players, and their backups. Have a detailed understanding of the injury situation for your team, and the opponent. Understand coaching tendencies, and be able to project expected tactics given the specific match-up. Inside the game, watch the action closely to instantly spot a player limping or coming off the field. This stuff matters, and there is big edge to be had.


If you want to be a part of this, more info inside the video!


Also in the video:

  • Recap of 2017 results
  • Overall philosophies of the model
  • 2018 new changes to the model
  • Official Play: Season win total
  • Official Play: Week 1 side & total


Official Plays:

3* RSW Chicago Bears o7 -102

Week 1 Plays:
2* KC/LAC u47.5 -110

1* CHI/GB u47.5 -110


Become a member for full list of projections & plays:

2018 NFL Monthly:

2018 NFL Full Season:

NFL Handicapper Application: