16 May May 17 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)
Looking at this Rockies, San Francisco Giants game today. I’m gonna be hunting the Rockies over the next couple weeks and months. I think they’re a little bit overrated based on their components, Chad Bettis in particular. Looking at an xFIP about a run and a half higher than his ERA, 4.6 versus 3.1. Strike out minus walk of about 2.4, striking out five per nine. Walking three per nine. Nothing to get excited about. We have his overall base winner number here at 111, 11% worse than an average starting pitcher, although he’s off to a pretty good start on the season. If you look at conventional stats 4-1. So maybe a little bit of betting value because of that. DJ LeMahieu, superstar for the Rockies, out with a thumb injury today. They also have a lineup that is not very good against right handed pitchers, quite a few holes in that lineup. Parra we have rated pretty bad at that number two hole.
I want to correct something that I said on Gill’s show. I said Samardzija’s velocity was down two ticks versus two years ago, and four ticks versus four years ago. I was actually looking at Chad Bettis’s profile which makes me like the Giants even a little bit more. So looking at Bettis’s 90 mph this year on his fastball. Down two ticks from two years ago, four ticks from four years ago.
But Samardzija quite a bit better, sitting at 93.5, which is still two ticks down from his career average, but not as bad as what I initially thought. We have a basewinner overall starting pitcher number for Samardzija right at 100. So right about an average starting pitcher.
We’re working on a new five inning module here that takes into account expected wOBA for the team, hitting over the last year, 365 days. Compared to the expected wOBA for each starting pitcher and. Kind of a simple model, but interesting. Another filter that we use to check for value using another unique statistic now, and you can see we do like San Francisco in this game in the first five innings scored about 2.1 runs, compared to 1.5. Looking at the first five innings, Giants -140.
5-17 Baseball Betting:
Official Plays [THU May 17]:
953 .67* SDP +152
960 .67* SFG -118
961 .67* OAK +112
969 .67* BAL +156
954 .5* SDP/PIT u8.5 -105
966 .5* TBR/LAA u8 -105
968 .5* DET/SEA u8.5 -115
952 .5* (1st 5 INN) LAD/MIA u4 -115
965 .67* TBR +152
BaseWinner Record & Results: (here)