May 16 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)

May 16 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)

 

 

Looking at St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins. Mikolas vs Lynn. You can see Mikolas here 96, 4% better than the average starting pitcher. Lance Lynn 118, 18% worse. This is largely a fade on Lance Lynn. Let’s take a look at some of his components so far this year.

You can see he spent his 10 year career with this Cardinal organization. This is the first year away for the Twins. And really exploded his walk rate, 6.55 per 9. You can see an ERA of 7.3, xFIP of 4.5 I think this is a pretty bad matchup for him, too. Looking at this Cardinal offense. They walk 12% more than the average lineup. So a bit of a toxic combination there. A high walk pitcher go up against a lineup that will take walks and not chase. It’s a very very good hitting lineup on top of that for St. Louis.

I was playing with some statcast data last night. Looking at the difference between expected wOBA for each team and actual wOBA. It uses statcast metrics, launch angle and exit velocity to estimate what the results probably should have been versus the actual results.

And St. Louis is a team only behind Toronto with the highest expected wOBA compared to actual wOBA. Their expected wOBA is about .343 as a team. They are actually hitting .304. So could be a sign of an under rated team here in St. Louis.

On top of that, there BABIP, batting average balls in play, as a team is on the lower end of the league at .272. So could be a good time to back this St. Louis club moving forward the next couple of weeks. But overall we can get St. Louis right now at about -110, -115. BasWinner line has it more like -133. So thats the play of the day guys, good luck.

 

5-16 Baseball Betting:

5-16 Top MLB Baseball Betting Handicapper

Morning update:

MLB Morning Betting Line Update

 

Link: How to Read the BaseWinner Chart

 

Official Plays [WED May 16]:

911 .67* TBR -111
916 .67* BOS -250
917 .67* HOU -128
928 .67* WAS -160

5-16 Add:
919 .67* PHI -107
925 .67* STL -112

 

 

Note: We are “risking” 1% on favs and underdogs. Not “to win” 1%. 
Note: Make sure the line still provides 10+ points of value (your betting line vs the BW projected spread) 

 

BaseWinner Record & Results: (here)

 

 

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