May 15 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)

May 15 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)


What’s up, guys. Mike, here, looking at the Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves game today. Yu Darvish, one of the more interesting players in the league, generates a strong emotional reaction, which can be a profitable betting opportunity on or against guys like that. Cubs fans, I think, not generally pleased with the signing, especially in combination of letting Jake Arrieta, their guy, walk and sign with the Phillies, and now off to a pretty good start.

But let’s take a little bit deeper look into Yu Darvish. As publicly known, off to a pretty bad start with the Cubs here: 6 ERA, 4.12 xFIP. Let’s take a little bit deeper look into the components here. Strikeouts per nine of eleven, right about his career average. His velocity is right about average, as well. BABIP is higher: 3.16, compared to a career 2.93. Left on base percentage, a little bit lower. Home runs per fly ball: 20%, much higher than his career average; so a little bit of evidence here that he could be a victim of a little bit of bad luck to start the season.

The concerning part that I do see here is the walks per nine: 4.8, up quite a bit from his career of 3.3. That is a concerning part. There was some reports of the Astros in the World Series having played him so many years, and scouted him with the Texas Rangers, that they had a pretty good idea of how and when he was tipping his pitches, and you can see they absolutely destroyed him in that World Series; a couple of World Series starts. But if you look at the 20 starts before that World Series, he was actually pretty spectacular in the majority of his starts. That’s kind of a fun part about handicapping. The market’s generally looking at only the last three to five games that these pitchers pitch. But we found it more effective to look at a little bit of a longer term view of these guys.

I think we have a good buy-low candidate here in Yu Darvish, and the Cubs, today, looking at a price of about -120 to -125 right now. We have a base winner line of -180, so that’s the play of the day, guys. Good luck.


5-15 Baseball Betting:

5-15 How to bet on MLB Baseball using analytics

5-15 TBR Banda update


Link: How to Read the BaseWinner Chart


Official Plays [TUE May 15]:

955 .67* CHC -116
958 .67* ARI -153
961 .67* OAK +170
963 .67* CLE -125
971 .67* PHI -113

5-15 ADD:
965 .67* TBR -104
967 .67* HOU -160
974 .67* WAS +121



BaseWinner Record & Results: (here)


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