24 Jul July 25 – MLB Handicapping Formula
MLB Handicapping Formula: Diamondbacks v Cubs (July 25, 2018)
BaserWinner Crunch Podcast using our MLB Handicapping Formula. We’re doing it for the July 25th card, and it’s really early. I’m recording this at 1:38 MST. But I love this, this game is so good. It’s a Kool & the Gang games times two. You know, “get down on it”. And you better because yesterday’s game, that was interesting. And people that … I don’t understand this, and I don’t think … That’s why I don’t think the markets are very efficient, unless I’m missing something that bookies are setting people up. I don’t know, but we set the game up last night, the Dodgers. We put that out on the podcast. Plus 119, and then they closed, or they were around minus 106.
I said, “Oh I’m gonna go on Gill’s show and do the Dodgers, what the hell,” and they were minus 106, and it moved 6% from the time I did the podcast to the morning. It was seven in the morning, I’m like “Okay, I’m gonna talk about this game- Oh shit, I’m not gonna talk about this game” because the line had moved so much.
But, for those of you who like very small amounts of me, I’m on Gill’s show on at about 8:55. I get about two minutes a day on that show, so if you guys are kinda like “Oh what is he gonna play,” if you don’t want to hear me talk, it’s a perfect opportunity to listen to that show.
Anyway, let’s see … I get be on with The Voice of Sports betting, so I always look at it like the positive side of things. But even when he cuts me off that good. I was talking about the Dodgers, and he was like “We gotta go,” and I was like “Oh, shit the Voice of Sports betting me”. And he’s saying, “I gotta go, I gotta go”… Anyway okay, let’s get into this game because it’s absolutely a criminal price right now. The Cubs … and I’m going to make sure that this is in right, let’s see. Minus 1.30 plus 1.20 are the Cubs with Lester the jester on the hill let’s look at this.
Yeah, well that’s what it is, it’s unbelievable. Minus 1.30 Cubs plus 1.20 for the Dbacks we have the Dbacks at minus 1.29 it’s an absolute ridiculous price and we’ll start with it … I’ll try to get this out as fast as we can. Robbie Ray 69 dude. What was that spilling Ted’s excellent adventure number and Lester at 118 so let’s go over this. I’m going to go over a couple things, it’s kinda cool numbers actually. But we’ll stay with the standard log cutter and then we’ll look at Ray’s so Ray has had 11 starts and 32% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate so a little bit of control issues and fly ball median is 36 so that’s … Those are the two down things about Robbie Ray but that 32% strike out rate is … gosh I’m seeing these 32 … 30% strikeout rates it’s unbelievable.
How these elite pitchers … The difference between these elite and this on the road 34.8 strikeout percentage and those of you who know me why I like the strikeout number so much is because it correlates … It’s the one that’s predictive the most! Well we could just do a number with a strikeouts a run number and it’s hard to do because there’s other things it’s just not all about strikeouts. But it’s a very important number then you got a 32% strikeout rate for Ray and then he’s 135 swinging strikes two batters faced and he has not … This is unbelievable here. He’s got 11 starts, he has had swinging strikes two batters faced, 130, 115, 136, 135, 159, 200, 131, 120 not even below 115 it’s an amazing card, a log for him.
Okay, so, having said that let’s look at Lester and his card is … I hate to use the same joke twice in one but it’s a jester his card is just like … Oh man. It’s just a race to the window on this thing! I mean, like what like how irresponsible is it to set a line that this is bad. So anyway okay 18% so almost half the strikeout rate as Ray. 10% walk rate, okay let’s see, he may be … is he better at home maybe? No he’s worse! 16.6 at home, 10.9 walk rate so, I mean, jesus. This is our MLB Handicapping Formula.
So let’s give you some other lowdown numbers here. It’s crazy, this is just unbelievable. And the reason I didn’t give it a one is just because it … Ray has 11 starts it’s more principle than anything. But, okay so, this is what I wanted to look at is that what I want to look at first? No I want to look at this first so okay, this is the five inning base side for whatever reason I’m charting this every day and it honestly mixed results. That’s why I haven’t gotten too hard core with it but there are some encouraging things. If I ever had time to document it it would be great. Let’s see we got see this is another manual job of me but once we get some stuff automated then we can kinda get more in depth into the analysis part.
But look at this see so Lester 355 expected woba so just to kinda see what that means so like I have it here. Let me unfilter it, let’s just go over the numbers and I’ll tell … well let’s tell you what a 355 xwoba what that means from a run standpoint. Because I could say “Oh it’s a 355 xwoba again” and you’ll say well what the fuck is this guy talking about. But, okay so this kinda quantifies it too this is the other way around. So Cleveland, number 2 in batting xwoba at .354 five runs a game is what that equates to. So 355 is 5.03 or something like this. Well we can put it in let’s put it in here .355 it’s 5.0 but it kinda goes up so let’s, well we could even do this number boom boom okay 5.04. So what was that before? Oh 3.54 so this must be 4.999, 4.97 okay so, anyway, 355 is … I should have a chart for the xwoba so when I talk about it you can relay that.
So anyways he is … you can tell I’m excited about this! So here’s another one that I like better but that’s for your eyes only as members! As much as I like this game there’s another game that’s better. 355 is Lester, Ray is 313 so that’s like Miami Marlins-esque you know if you’re looking from a batting standpoint. Anyways difference in projected runs is -4.44 and that’s on the five inning line so if you guys, you guys just beat each other to the windows for that one because that’s a good play too. So I mean that’s John Lester and then John Lester one more thing on John Lester and then I’ll sign off, I wanna get this thing out here so home John Lester xwoba is … He’s had two pretty good ones 267, 276 and 278 pretty good. Again, against Pittsburgh and Cleveland but the last four …
Remember this Dodger game? The Dodgers lost four nothing but the Dodgers should have won … This is absolutely insane. Based on xwoba 10.4 to 5.9 the wind was blowing in tremendously. The fucking Dodgers .474 xwoba and they didn’t score a run and I think that if you look through that xwoba archives that might never ever be matched. I mean it sounds kind of like a hyped up statement but shit dude .474 and they didn’t score a run. Unbelievable.
So then you got .363 remember, .355 is five runs so then you got .384 versus Cincinnati, these are up on the last four home starts. Oh look I’ve got the runs right here! These are expected runs I lied now this is, this doesn’t just include Lester this includes the bull pin too so it’s not a totally fair comparison. But shit if the guy you know this is what the team, the opposing team have done when this guy starts. So 10.4 runs, 5.8 runs, 6.6 runs and 8.6 runs. Unbelievable! And at this price, a criminal price we’re going to go with Arizona plus 120 as I do this for .67 units. Good luck I hope your bets cash and we will be back with another Crunch podcast for tomorrow which, this is the Wednesday card so it will be for the Thursday card. Good luck guys using our MLB Handicapping Formula!
7-25 MLB Handicapping Formula:
Official Plays [WED July 25]:
952 .5* NYM -102
953 1* LAD -128
955 .67* STL -123
959 .67* ARI +115
963 .67* DET +112
968 .35* BAL +167
972 1* LAA -220
977 .67* HOU -124
978 .67* HOU/COL u10.5 -113
MLB Handicapping Formula – BaseWinner Record & Results: (here)