How to Read the BaseWinner Line

The BaseWinner Line is the code that we’ve written for our daily projections. This is building in all the intelligence we have to project players. It’s about getting things down to 1 number. The BaseWinner Line. Using advanced stats the way we read them, we will find value in games that no one else can see.

Players and teams are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws; age, appearance, personality. The BaseWinner Line cuts straight through that.

How to Read the Daily BaseWinner Line Chart

BW: The BaseWinner Line is the code that we’ve written using all the intelligence we have to project players. It’s about getting things down to 1 number. The BaseWinner Line. Compare this BW line to the official Vegas line. When you see a large difference, there may be value. Same thing with the total.

TT: Team Total Projected Runs – We calculate each teams runs using the following factors and crunch them to get a clean run number projection: Team total projected runs. We calculate each teams runs using the following factors and crunch them to get a clean run number projection:

  1. Team Offensive Number — We project the lineup vs. opponents handedness and league/interleague. Left/right — home/away splits and overall numbers are combined in our unique combination equation to get the raw offensive numbers for each team on the card.
  2. Opponent Defensive Number – Based on our run rating for opponents pitching ratings and defensive runs saved/cost.
  3. Projected Plate Appearances – A unique formula based on offensive and defensive analytics.
 
 

We then “Crunch” these numbers together with the Park Factors and Umpire Rating to get the team total.

ATT: Adjusted team total runs – The BaseWinner home team projected runs is then carefully adjusted using the home team’s expected win percentage (will there be a bottom 9th?). We do this for precision with our totals and Home Team Total.

Role: Starting Pitcher rotation number
SxIP: Starting Pitcher expected innings pitched.
SP: Proprietary Starting Pitcher rating. The lower the better. 100 is average.
RxIP: Relief expected innings pitched
RLF: Proprietary Relief Pitcher rating. The lower the better. 92 is average.
FLD: Proprietary fielding rating. The lower the better. 100 is average.
DEF: Proprietary defense rating (Pitching + Fielding). The lower the better. 100 is average.
OFF: Proprietary Offensive rating. The higher the better. 100 is average. All of the numbers on the chart are the teams raw numbers based on weighted plate appearances and individual in the projected lineup. These numbers are not adjusted for strength of opponent, park factors are umpire but give us a base for our “Crunch” run projections.
H/A: Home vs Away Splits. The higher the better. 100 is average.
L/R: Left vs Right Splits. The higher the better. 100 is average.
GB: Ground Ball team projection tendency. The higher the more ground balls on average. 100 is average. This number is not included in the Crunch run formula but is relevant in our selection filter process and useful to many of our clients who are self handicappers.
FB: Fly Ball team projection tendency. The higher the more fly balls on average. 100 is average. This number is not included in the Crunch run formula but is relevant in our selection filter process and useful to many of our clients who are self handicappers.
UMP: Home plate umpire name
URAT: Umpire total run rating. The higher the more runs on average. 100 is average.
PFR: Park Factors (right-handed batters): All players regressed for park factors + talent faced last year to more accurately project moving forward.
PFL: Park Factors (left-handed batters): All players regressed for park factors + talent faced last year to more accurately project moving forward.