02 Feb EPL MATCHWEEK 26 EXPECTED GOALS, PI20 NUMBERS AND SELECTIONS
A midweek winning round for MW25 that ended with a Man City white knuckle under win.
Unfortunately, no podcast for the weekend, but Mark will be on with Gill on his A Numbers Game show on VSIN (SiriusXM 204) Friday at 07:15 PST.
Also – bonus prop breakdown for the Super Bowl for you.
Mark has broken down the MW26 card with Crunch modeling of xGoals and passes inside of 20 yards as displayed on the overview chart.
The card offers two nice official plays and a couple of side plays Mark loves.
MW 26 Official Plays:
Leicester City/Swansea City under 2.5 -130 risk .5 to win .38 units
Liverpool/Tottenham under 3 -110 risk .5 to win .45 units
Man City -1 1/2 -122
Arsenal -1 -112
Crystal Palace +105
Super Bowl Prop Opinions
Alshon Jeffery – ½ -110 more receptions than LIV/TOT Goals (Westgate)
- Jeffery Median Targets = 7 (18 games in 2018)
- Jeffery Median Receptions = 4
- Average receptions = 3.9
- Very Strong CDSA Reception number that uses PFF numbers (128 or 28% above average) and Strong NE Coverage number (most likely Malcom Butler 25% better than average) cancels each other out.
- Projected receptions: 4 – ½ = 3.5
- LIV/TOT goals = 2.59
- We give Jeffery odds of -170 to win bet (63% chance)
Palace/Newcastle Goals +120 Greater than Chris Hogan Receptions (Golden Nugget)
Public could be looking at these numbers:
- Hogan median targets = 6 (11 games in 2018)
- Average Catches= 3.41
- Median Catches = 4
However, we are downgrading Hogan’s catch projections based on the following:
- 5 of 11 games 2 or under receptions
- Hogan CDSA reception rating is 16% below average coupled with aggregate of Philly coverage at 20% better than average and our figs are strong on Darby (20% better than average) most likely cover man.
- We have downgraded reception projection to 2.7.
- CP/NEW projected goals = 2.87
- Value on +120 CP/NEW line as we have it projected at -113 CP/NEW goals to beat Hogan.
Overview Chart Matchweek 26: