EPL Matchweek 21

EPL Matchweek 21


“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.” – Bruce Lee


MW21 is here and Basewinner rings in a more focused EPL betting strategy early for the New Year.

Official plays for EPL will only be unders. Basewinner will have more on this on next week’s MW23 podcast.

This approach will allow us to be targeted in our work. Our efforts will be directed to advance profit from the under betting option of the game.

We will incorporate statistical methods and ideologies for betting the under that have made us successful in baseball and football. Our focus, time and effort related to our EPL data studies will be arranged to pursue and identify of the best under spots.

At a high level, our under strategy incorporates split Crunch goal modeling with the Poisson method and an advanced Dixon-Coles and expected goals filter. As our work and studies progress, we will augment this base.

The charts that you will see on the MW pages will still display Poisson 3 way win probabilities and we will continue to provide you with the 4 model and public chart that you can use for your own use.

Official Plays:

Chelsea/Stoke under 3.5 -141                 risk .5 to win .35 units
Liverpool/Leicester under 3.5 -123    risk .5 to win .41  units
Watford/Swansea   under 2.5  -127       risk .5 to win .39 units
Crystal Palace/Man City   under 3.5 -128  risk .5 to win .39  units

Overview Chart:

YTD Team Offensive Split Snapshot:

YTD Team Defensive Split Snaphot:


Model Comparison and Top Model Plays:

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