EPL Matchweek 19 – Selections and Expected Goal Charts

EPL Matchweek 19 – Selections and Expected Goal Charts

MW 19 Podcast

Ho! Ho! Ho! for MW19 as BaseWinner plays Santa and goes over the whole card with the help of expected goals Crunch modeling. The are several nice spots by the numbers on this one.

BW is high on the SHAG model and there are some interesting underlying stats looked at, particularly in the Arsenal v. Liverpool game.

The Premier League will be in high gear for the Holiday season and team CDSI has you covered.

Basewinner looks at the per game expected goal split ratings and projections. He also analyzes a four-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the complete 10 game card.

Arsenal game is at 7 minute mark

Official Plays:

Arsenal +153   .5 units
Everton +1 -138 Risk .25 units Under 2.5 Risk .25 units
Swansea  +231  .25 units
Burnley .1 unit  +620   under 2 1/2 Risk .4 units
All Games
Personal Plays
Man City over 3.5  -159  Risk .25
Stoke under 2.5  -159  risk .5
Coin Flips
Watford  pk +102
Stoke under 2 1/2 -153
Huddersfield under  2 1/2 -127

Overview Chart:

 

YTD Team Offensive Split Snapshot:

YTD Team Defensive Split Snaphot:

 Model Comparison and Top Model Plays:

 

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