EPL 2019 – Matchweek 3

EPL 2019 – Matchweek 3

.45* Norwich pk +220
.65* Sheffield United pk +153
.22* (Watford/West Ham) Deulofeu to score +230
.95* (Liverpool/Arsenal) Salah to score +105
.94* Burnley +0.5 +106
1.03* Tottenham/Newcastle u3 -103

 

CDSA EPL Model Metrics Explanations

 

Ball Advancement Rating (BAR): Measures player impact by quantifying the value of every on-ball action and assigning the values to the players who completed them.

 

 

BAR Attacking Rating (ATT): Value of attacking actions completed by each player per match

BAR Defensive Rating (DEF): Value of defensive actions completed by each player per match

BAR Shot Rating (SHOT): Value of shots completed by each player per match

BAR Passing Rating (PASS): Value of passes completed by each player per match

BAR Take-on Rating (TAKEON): Value of take-ons (dribbles) completed by each player per match

Points Value Above Replacement (PVAR): Value in points each player is worth above a ‘replacement’ 25th percentile player in his position (per match)

Overall (OVR): BAR Attacking Rating (ATT) + BAR Defensive Rating (DEF)

Adjusted Attacking Rating (AdjATT): Attacking rating adjusted for position

Adjusted Defensive Rating (AdjDEF): Defensive rating adjusted for position

 

CDSA Team Ratings: Final team ratings are derived from numerous variables including Ball Advancement Rating, expected goals, 538 ratings, and BAR player ratings. 100 is average, and every rating above or below 100 represents 1% off average.

 

Attack Rating (ATT): Rates expected attacking output based on variables stated above. Each rating higher than 100 represents a 1% better attack than average. For example, a 117 attacking rating represents an attack 17% better than average.

Defense Rating (DEF): Rates expected defensive output based on variables stated above. Each rating lower than 100 represents a 1% better defense than average. For example, a 96 defensive rating represents a defense 4% better than average.

Overall Rating (OVR): Rates expected overall output based on variables stated above. Each rating higher than 100 represents 1% better overall output than average. For example, a 109 overall rating represents a club with 9% better overall output than an average club.

Manager Rating (MNGR): Rates manager quality based on manager Elo ratings found on clubelo.com. Each rating higher than 100 represents a 1% better manager than average. For example, a 122 manager rating represents a manager 22% better than average.

Adjusted Expected Goals (Adj xG): Projected goals in the given game adjusted for team ratings and opponent ratings.

-Win Probability (WP): Probability of a given game being won by a given club based on the model’s ratings and match prediction methods.

-Draw Probability (WP): Probability of a given game finishing as a draw (tie) based on the model’s ratings and match prediction methods.

 

Full Season Simulations: Simulates the EPL season 10,000 times using the model’s ratings.

 

-Projected Goals For (GF): Total projected goals for based on the full season projections.

-Projected Goals Against (GA): Total projected goals for based on the full season projections.

-Projected Goals Difference (GF): Projected goal difference (GF-GA).

-Title Probability (title%): Proportion of times a given club wins the EPL title in the 10,000 simulations run.

-Top 4 Probability (top4%): Proportion of times a given club finishes within the top 4 in the 10,000 simulations run.

-Top 6 Probability (top6%): Proportion of times a given club finishes within the top 6 in the 10,000 simulations run.

-Relegation Probability (relegation%): Proportion of times a given club finishes within the relegation zone (bottom 3 in the league) in the 10,000 simulations run.

-Projected Points (points): Total projected points based on the full season projections.