EPL 2017: Matchweek 18

EPL 2017: Matchweek 18

MW 18 Podcast

Exciting news for MW18 as BW introduces high powered expected goals probability modeling to uncover an extremely valuable play. He also reveals the first ever EPL “Metrics Mike” special.

The SHAG model is new but has already been improved thanks to the Basewinner’s discovery of understat.com. If you haven’t heard of understat.com, it is your lucky day.

Basically, Basewinner has been on a stat induced high for the last 4 days as this site will be able to fuel a Crunch style Premier League goal projection with some incredibly valuable shot data.

As usual, PLBR is loaded with stats, ratings and evaluations and we show you three value plays on the MW18 podcast.

Basewinner looks at the per game expected goal split ratings and projections. He also analyzes a four-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the following games:

Leicester City v. Crystal Palace

Manchester City v. Tottenham

West Brom v. Manchester United

The four models are a last 6 goal differential module (G6) and the Bing, Five Thirty Eight and Bet Devil predictive models. Also, the top public bet of the week is looked at.


Member “OFFICIAL PLAY” Video:


Official Plays:

Metrics Mike Special–  .5 units   West Brom 1st Half pk,+1/2  +104 
West Brom +1 -118  Risk .5 units    Risk .1 unit on 3Way @+555
Bournemouth +1 +106  Risk .5 units    Risk .1 unit on 3Way @+549
Brighton/Burnley under 1 1/2 +148 .3 units
Stoke +129  .5 units
 All Games
Personal Plays
Leicester City -109
Arsenal -1 1/2 -134
Man City/Tottenham under 3 1/2 Risk .5 units
Coin Flips
Chelsea -251   Risk .25  to win .1
Watford/Huddersfield  under 2 1/2 -118
Swansea +1/2 +118

Overview Chart:


 Top Plays Each Model:


xPected Goals Offense:


xPected Goals Defense:

Model Comparison:


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