[EPL 11] New Podcast: Mark & Riley EPL Update

[EPL 11] New Podcast: Mark & Riley EPL Update

Inside the pod, we review the updated 2018 EPL model, including a review of:

  • 538 Soccer model – number of goals a team would score against an average team
  • Expected goals – probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)

 

Riley also goes into his new *Tactical* rating system, attempting to quantify: 

  • Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
  • Fluidity Net =  Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
  • Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
  • Defense Efficiency  = Expected goals allowed  / Opp Possession
  • Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game

 

The early results from the model are fantastic:

Moneyline:  28 plays, 50%, +5.03 units won
Over/Under: 26 plays, 62%, +7.33 units won
BTTS: 5 plays, 20%, -4.13 units won
Asian Handicap: 2 plays, 50%, +0.26 units won

Overall: 
EPL: 55 plays, 56%, +8.85 units
UCL: 7 plays, 28%, -0.36 units

 

Get all the plays: https://www.cleardatasports.com/register/epl-premium/

 

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