From the Basewinner….

You will hear much talk from baseball hipsters regarding the finale of the Rays/Astros ALDS. The prevailing chatter will be that the squares will be taking the Astros and the sharps will be on the Rays. I have learned over the years that looking at a game is not that simple and there are many aspects to look at when deciding what to do.

Fortunately, the CDS baseball handicapping team has three models to help us to determine if a play makes sense.

The models have conflicting signals on the side. However, the models all line up on the total and we can get under 7 at plus odds on the 5dimes overnights.

The play is on the under 7 +105  — .5 units

Basewizzard’s Take

It all comes down to game 5, as the Rays square off again against the mighty Astros. In this tilt Houston’s ace Gerrit Cole toes the rubber versus Tyler Glasnow.

In Cole’s last outing, he pitched a masterful 7.2 innings. I expect Cole to pitch deep into this game AGAIN, whereas Tampa will use a collection of pitchers. The BaseWizzard Pitch Location System indicates strongly for HOU ML and the Under with deltas for both around 13.  Deltas of this size are rare and especially in a playoff game. I think the side is a bit too juicy at -255 with the under 7 being the better value. I recommend a play on TB/HOU UN 7.

Basewinner Crunch Line

BBK Model

Pitch Location/Type Model