BaseWinner MLB Betting Projections (May 17)

BaseWinner MLB Betting Projections (May 17)

May 17 MLB Betting Projections:

The model has 3 totals and 4 sides. The model has 1 game with a side and total play in the same game.

902 1* WAS -125
902 .5* CHC/WAS u7.5 -115
903 .5* COL +121
910 .5* ATL -120
914 .5* PIT/SDP u7 +100
922 .5* HOU/BOS u9.5 -119
926 .67* LAA -135

 

BaseWinner Bullets:

 

Brewers v. Braves – Basewinner Line Braves -142

  • Jhoulys Chacin has an alarming .64 bb/K this season. This figure puts him 121 of 127 pitchers with 30+ IP this season. In addition, JC’s 17.3% K rate is 111th in this group and his 11% BB rate is 15th highest.
  • The MLB 1st Quarter ended Monday. Brewers were 9th in OPS at .747. However, they are only 19th in BB/K at .37. We look for their OPS number to regress.
  • BB/K is simple and useful number to quickly identify plate discipline skills. The BB/K ratio has moderate to strong correlation with more granular Plate Discipline metrics as well as OPS.

 

Royals v. Angels  Basewinner Line Angels -179

  • Brad Keller has an alarming .821 BB/K this season. This figure ties him for the bottom of 127 pitchers with 30+ IP this season. His 17.3% K rate is 113th in this group and his 13.8% BB rate is 2nd highest.
  • The Angels had the best BB/K rate in MLB for the 1Q of 2019 at .61. However, they were only 15th in OPS at .754. We look for the Angels OPS number to improve.
  • BB/K is simple and useful number to quickly identify plate discipline skills. The BB/K ratio has moderate to strong correlation with more granular Plate Discipline metrics as well as OPS.
  • For the 1Q 2019, the Angels led MLB in grounding into double plays (48). However, if you look at their team overall GB% it is only 18th in MLB (42.9%). What has led to the high number Double Plays is their GB% with RISP is 50.7%. Much research has shown that RISP numbers are luck based rather than skill based. The CDSA team looks for the Angels GB% with RISP  to regress to their overall GB%.