August 8 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)

August 8 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)

On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner reviews the YTD, monthly and previous week’s results and looks at Tuesday’s betting card to uncover value.

There are three plays on the podcast that look juicy for the Tuesday card.

The play’s are in the Boston Red Sox v Tampa Bay Rays game and BW uses the log cutter tool to examine Chris Sale’s, Austin Pruitt’s, Michael Wacha’s and Jason Vargas’s pitching stats and projections.

Official Plays [TUE August 8]: 
.67* 901 MIA +124
.67* 903 SDP +133
.67* 908 ARI +115
.67* 909 CHC -170
.67* 912 TOR -118
1* 913 BOS -188
.67* BOS/TB under 7.5
.67* HOU/CHW under 9.5
.67* SEA/OAK under 9
.67* 922 PIT -151
1* 926 CLE -229
1* 929 STL -110

 

Note: We are “risking” 1% on favs and underdogs. Not “to win” 1%. 
Note: Make sure the line still provides 10+ points of value (your betting line vs the BW projected spread) 

Additional Note: 
Over the next couple months, you may notice we have passed on a few games that appear to have a significant line value difference. This is based on Mark’s research into a similar game model to filter out certain plays. We will start sharing some of these correlation studies on upcoming shows! 

You can view the official log of plays here: 2017 BaseWinner Record
2016 BaseWinner Record:
2016 BaseWinner Record

8-8 Overview:

MLB Baseball Advanced Analytics

 

Walk Worksheet:

MLB Baseball Advanced Analytics

 

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