August 22 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)

August 22 – BaseWinner Crunch (Members)

On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner reviews the YTD, monthly and previous week’s results and looks at Tuesday’s betting card to uncover value.

There is one play on the podcast that the BW goes deep into.

A bonus play thrown in at the end because Basewinner could not resist throwing out a Brand Hand stat and alluding to Fast Times at Ridgemont High.

The plays are in the Milwaukee Brewers v. San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres v St. Louis Cardinals games game.

BW uses the log cutter to look at Jimmy Nelson’s and Jeff Samardzija’s pitching stats and projections.

Also a look at current BW Bullpen and closer ratings.

Official Plays [TUE August 22]: 
.67* 904 PIT +108
.67* 911 SDP +188
.67* MIL/SF under 8 -110
.67* 916 BAL -149
.67* 918 CLE -185
.67* NYY/DET under 10 -110
.67* 922 TBR -164
.67* TEX/LAA under 9.5 -115
.67* COL/KC under 9 -110

 

Note: We are “risking” 1% on favs and underdogs. Not “to win” 1%. 
Note: Make sure the line still provides 10+ points of value (your betting line vs the BW projected spread) 

Additional Note: 
Over the next couple months, you may notice we have passed on a few games that appear to have a significant line value difference. This is based on Mark’s research into a similar game model to filter out certain plays. We will start sharing some of these correlation studies on upcoming shows! 

You can view the official log of plays here: 2017 BaseWinner Record
2016 BaseWinner Record:
2016 BaseWinner Record

8-22 Overview:

MLB Betting Advanced Analytics

 

Walk Worksheet:

MLB Betting Advanced Analytics

 

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