Advanced Soccer Analytics

Updated 2019 EPL model – Featuring expected goals handicapping: probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)


Riley also goes into his new *Tactical* rating system, attempting to quantify: 

  • Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
  • Fluidity Net =  Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
  • Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
  • Defense Efficiency  = Expected goals allowed  / Opp Possession
  • Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game


How to bet on EPL Soccer – Overview

EPL Soccer Betting Model – Player Ratings Video

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