2017 MLB Playoffs: The Essential Number Guide

03 Oct 2017 MLB Playoffs: The Essential Number Guide

Posted at 23:13h in Basewinner by Metrics Mike 0 Comments

0 Likes

Join the BaseWinner as we review the key numbers for each team going into the MLB playoffs from a statistical perspective.

Every Playoff Team Updated & Rated:

Starting Pitching
Offensive lineups
Bullpens
Betting Odds / Win Probabilities

Where is the value? We have both an AL & NL winner, along with a “will not win” parlay!

NL Pennant	FGProb	FGML	BWProb	BWML	5DML
LA Dodgers	34.0%	194	41.5%	141	172
Washington	28.8%	247	35.2%	184	330
Chicago Cubs	24.5%	308	12.0%	733	325
Arizona	7.2%	1289	8.8%	1036	675
Colorado	5.5%	1718	2.4%	4067	1300

AL Pennant	FGProb	FGML	BWProb	BWML	5DML
Cleveland	39.9%	151	52.1%	-109	165
Houston	28.5%	251	12.7%	687	233
Boston	19.6%	410	24.7%	305	380
NY Yankees	9.1%	999	9.6%	942	550
Minnesota	2.9%	3348	0.9%	11011	1425

World Series	FGProb	FGML	BW %	BWML	5DML
Cleveland	23.9%	318	31.8%	214	325
LA Dodgers	16.8%	495	22.5%	344	360
Houston	15.8%	533	4.8%	1983	455
Washington	13.5%	641	17.2%	481	800
Chicago Cubs	11.0%	809	3.9%	2464	775
Boston	9.9%	910	11.7%	755	850
NY Yankees	4.0%	2400	4.1%	2339	1200
Arizona	2.4%	4067	3.4%	2841	1800
Colorado	1.6%	6150	0.5%	19900	3300
Minnesota	1.0%	9900	0.2%	49900	3300

According to the Fangraph’s projections, there is value with Cleveland and Washington. Our numbers echo this and it is a loud echo. We also like Boston a bit. The losers are Houston and Chicago Cubs, which could create a stir in the baseball hipster world.

Offensive Ratings

Let’s look at the offenses for all ten teams for four categories. The Basewinner run number is what we are showing here.

What this number shows is the projected performance of the team’s projected offensive lineup for each category compared to league average. This is projected for each team at a neutral park and assumes 75 degree sunny weather and no wind.

Let’s take an example from the chart to show what this number shows. The Houston Basewinner run number for Away vR, is 107.

What a 107 means is that based on Houston’s lineup projections and our ratings that go into this category, they will produce at 107% of league average.

If Houston plays against a league average (100) starting pitcher and bullpen with league average pitchers exclusively in this category, at a ballpark with league average park factors and a league average umpire, the will be expected to produce 1.07 x 4.35 runs (our MLB combo median/average) or 4.65 runs.

		Away		Home
Team	Combo	vR	vL	vR	vL
LA Dodgers	113	108	112	116	119
Washington	109	107	109	111	113
Chicago Cubs	101	98	102	103	106
Arizona	108	108	106	109	109
Colorado	94	91	95	94	98

		Away		Home
Team	Combo	vR	vL	vR	vL
Cleveland	103	101	101	104	104
Houston	109	107	110	109	114
Boston	110	106	111	110	116
NY Yankees	112	110	107	116	112
Minnesota	101	101	97	103	100

These are simply the team’s raw offensive number projections.

For the daily grind, our software “Crunches” these raw numbers with the other pertinent numbers involving pitching, park factors and umpire ratings to give us the true probability line for each game.

Bullpens

These are perhaps the most important numbers to know as post season success relies on quality pitching from the pen.

Our overall bullpen numbers combine long term projections and on recent performance over the last thirty days.

Our numbers are scaled to a plus/minus number so we can easily use them in our probability calculations. For pitching and defense, the lower the better.

The first columns are for the overall bullpen (weighted) and the second set (tp) is for the top half of the pen (closer and the two set up guys) which is a bit more relevant for the post season games.

L30 = last 30 days.

WLTPro = long term bullpen projection weighted so the top half has greater weight than the rest of pen.

It is interesting to note the percentage of high-quality bullpens from these teams.

Team	WLTPro	L30	Weighted	Rank	tpLTP	tpL30	tpOV
ARI	94	94	94	16	90	92	90
BOS	88	59	82	4	75	48	70
CHC	77	93	80	3	76	74	76
CLE	79	58	75	2	69	43	64
COL	94	119	99	20	88	114	93
HOU	86	70	83	5	81	61	77
LAD	91	87	90	12	88	73	85
MIN	96	106	98	19	96	93	95
NYY	73	58	70	1	61	45	58
WAS	87	81	86	8	77	74	76

Starting Rotations

These are our projected numbers for the starters for each team. The BW number is a formula that uses K%, BB% and GB% and is adjusted for park and talent faced.

The BWR starting pitching number is the median of the BW number for the last 20 games. The lower the score the better.

The BWR number is scaled to PCT of projected runs allowed below/above to average. A pitcher with an 80 BWR is projected to suppress runs by 20%.

The H/A column is home/away splits over the last 20 games and is the median BWR of games in those splits.

The team rotation score is weighed so that the 1 man receives 33% of the grade and the other starters are weighed at 22% apiece.

Cleveland – 61

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Corey Kluber	R	40	65	38
Carlos Carrasco	R	55	64	54
Trevor Bauer	R	78	78	79
Josh Tomliin	R	82	79	86
Team		61	70	61

The Basewinner numbers love this rotation! This is the lowest combined number in the three years we have released the essential numbers. We think it is best that Kluber pitches on normal rest.

LA Dodgers – 72

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Clayton Kershaw	L	69	66	70
Yu Darvish	R	67	99	60
Alex Wood	L	78	79	78
Kenta Maeda	R	80	75	91
Team		72	77	73

The Basewinner numbers are still keen on this rotation and rate them #2. Kershaw BWR took a small hit when we shifted to L20 baseline, but a capable staff can go man v. man against anyone.

Washington – 74

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Max Scherzer	R	63	63	62
Stephen Strasburg	R	58	61	58
Gio Gonzalez	L	83	80	88
Tanner Roark	R	102	101	112
Team		74	74	77

The #1 and #2 guys can duel with the best. Gio has been improving. Achilles is Roark and we may get some value if he faces Jose Q in Game 4 of NLDS.

Boston – 77

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Chris Sale	L	47	66	41
Rick Porcello	R	99	98	92
E-Rod	L	86	102	76
Doug Fister	R	94	82	105
Team		77	84	74

Sale is BW#2 and E-Rod rates strong by the BW figs. E-Rod’s number OTR are surprising and could be a robber in a game value steal.

Arizona – 80

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Zack Greinke	R	68	66	85
Robbie Ray	L	75	81	53
Zack Godley	R	87	88	69
Taijuan Walker	R	98	111	70
Team		80	83	70

The D’Backs rate well by our numbers. Unfortunately, they get the Dodgers in the first round and must burn Greinke in the silly one and done game.

Houston – 81

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Justin Verlander	R	70	95	46
Dallas Keuchel	L	90	92	88
Brad Peacock	R	95	99	87
Charlie Morton	R	79	92	63
Team		81	94	68

JV has improved in our ratings and the staff rates third best in the AL. Unfortunately, good chance they will end up playing against both rotations that rate higher if they manage to get past the Sox.

NY Yankees – 82

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Luis Severino	R	73	78	60
Sonny Gray	R	94	98	83
Masahiro Tanaka	R	67	64	76
CC Sabathia	L	100	96	103
Team		82	83	77

We have the best rating on their #3 man which is interesting but our numbers are normally kind to Masahiro and this post-season is no exception. Numbers are not too kind to Gray which for us is no surprise.

Colorado – 86

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Jon Gray	R	72	81	70
Chad Bettis	R	96	85	116
German Marquez	R	105	63	134
Tyler Anderson	L	84	69	95
Team		86	74	99

This rotation is decent by our numbers. They are much better at home than OTR which is unfortunate since they will not have the HFA.

Chicago Cubs – 88

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Jon Lester	L	91	89	93
Kyle Hendricks	R	92	96	69
Jake Arrieta	R	98	111	81
Jose Quintana	L	75	75	85
Team		88	91	82

This rotation is not poor but they are just playing in a post-season where their opponents rotations have tremendous talent. The strategy here will most likely play against Lester and play on Jose Q.

Minnesota -97

Pitcher	TH	BWR	H	A
Ervin Santana	R	91	92	88
Jose Berrios	R	88	83	120
Kyle Gibson	R	99	104	87
Bartolo Colon	R	119	109	115
Team		97	95	100

The worst rotation still alive. Should be short lived for this team. Make you wonder why a second wild card.

Individual Series Win PCT Projections

We simulated each potential playoff series to create our LCS and World Series projections. We thought we would share the projections prior to the playoffs starting. The first chart is Win probability by percentage. The second chart is money line calculation.

You read from left to right so ARI win probability vs. Boston is 43.5%. Keep in mind projections during the playoffs could change a bit due to starting pitchers, lineup changes and other factors.

Team	ARI	BOS	CHC	CLE	COL	HOU	LAD	MIN	NYY	WAS
ARI		43.5%	57.0%	30.0%	61.5%	54.4%	32.7%	78.5%	49.5%	37.3%
BOS	56.5%		63.1%	35.4%	75.5%	59.9%	40.9%	81.6%	55.6%	45.0%
CHC	43.0%	36.9%		24.4%	63.1%	45.9%	29.0%	71.7%	42.1%	34.2%
CLE	70.0%	64.6%	75.6%		85.5%	74.0%	54.2%	86.8%	70.9%	60.4%
COL	38.5%	24.5%	36.9%	14.5%		34.0%	24.2%	59.3%	27.3%	20.9%
HOU	45.6%	40.1%	54.1%	26.0%	66.0%		31.4%	73.6%	43.9%	36.4%
LAD	67.3%	59.1%	71.0%	45.8%	75.8%	68.6%		87.0%	64.6%	52.4%
MIN	21.5%	18.4%	28.3%	13.2%	40.7%	26.4%	13.0%		32.6%	15.1%
NYY	50.5%	44.4%	57.9%	29.1%	72.7%	56.1%	35.4%	67.4%		40.7%
WAS	62.7%	55.0%	65.8%	39.6%	79.1%	63.6%	47.6%	84.9%	59.3%

Team	ARI	BOS	CHC	CLE	COL	HOU	LAD	MIN	NYY	WAS
ARI		130	-133	233	-160	-119	206	-365	102	168
BOS	-130		-171	182	-308	-149	144	-443	-125	122
CHC	133	171		310	-171	118	245	-253	138	192
CLE	-233	-182	-310		-590	-285	-118	-658	-244	-153
COL	160	308	171	590		194	313	-146	266	378
HOU	119	149	-118	285	-194		218	-279	128	175
LAD	-206	-144	-245	118	-313	-218		-669	-182	-110
MIN	365	443	253	658	146	279	669		207	562
NYY	-102	125	-138	244	-266	-128	182	-207		146
WAS	-168	-122	-192	153	-378	-175	110	-562	-146

Conclusion

We backed the Dodger and Astros prior to the season with team win totals over. We also liked the Tribe in season. Will our thoughts change?

Cleveland

The numbers are very high on the Tribe. #1 rotation and #2 bully. Great value on the ALCS future still.

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers still have a scant bit of value but the bullpen has seen downgrades in the most recent updates and we had them at #12 of 30 at years end.

Houston

We were high on this team early but they just don’t rate out well in the series calculations. The issue is more about the quality of their opponents than the team.

Washington

Our numbers show value on this team. Great 1,2 and Gio has improving figs. Bullpen has crept up into the top 10 overall with the acquisitions.

Chicago Cubs

Once bitten twice shy?? Not for us. Last year’s team spoiled big prices in our post-season last year. Nothing to hate about this team. However, rates much higher by our figs.

Boston

Numbers are motivating here. #4 pen overall, #3 of team’s remaining offensively. Sale’s BWR is sub 50. We will keep eyes open for a spot.

NY Yankees

This is a nice team. However, they must win OTR vs. Cleveland and that will take some asking. They are taking some market money which is nice for our other looks.

Arizona

The D’backs have done nice things this year but they must burn Greinke in WC game. We could see some value in individual games but we agree with Fangraphs on the Snakes and see nothing attractive in the futures.

Colorado

We have them with a 2.4% chance to win the NL. Not much too like when compared to other options.

Minnesota

Why are they here??

Basewinner’s Official Pre-Playoff Selections (lines from 5dimes)

1 unit to win 1.65

+165 American League Pennant – Cleveland Indians

Tough to pass up this value with the deepest rotation in the game. This is a gift price. Our numbers give CLE a 52% chance to win and they are priced at 37.7%. Almost 15% value.

1 unit to win 3.3

+330 National League Pennant – Washington Nationals

Great 1,2 punch and they should get past CHC as we have them with a 65.8% chance to win this series. Numbers show true odds to win NLCS at 35.2%. They are priced at 23.3%. I’ll take the value.

Risk 2 units to win 1.46

Two team fade parlay:

25204 Field wins American League Pennant -260* vs Houston

25106 Field wins National League Pennant -400* vs Chicago Cubs

Cubs are (not surprisingly) over-priced and Houston must beat better teams and face Kluber and Sale.

Total Risked – 4 units
Potential Return – 6.38 units

Hope this helps your betting and handicapping endeavors!

Best… Basewinner

If you like deep analysis and well researched numbers for other sports check out our NFL and EPL products at ClearDataSports.com.