2017 MLB Playoffs: The Essential Number Guide

2017 MLB Playoffs: The Essential Number Guide

Join the BaseWinner as we review the key numbers for each team going into the MLB playoffs from a statistical perspective.

Every Playoff Team Updated & Rated:

  • Starting Pitching
  • Offensive lineups 
  • Bullpens
  • Betting Odds / Win Probabilities

Where is the value? We have both an AL & NL winner, along with a “will not win” parlay! 

 

NL Pennant FGProb FGML BWProb BWML 5DML
LA Dodgers 34.0% 194 41.5% 141 172
Washington 28.8% 247 35.2% 184 330
Chicago Cubs 24.5% 308 12.0% 733 325
Arizona 7.2% 1289 8.8% 1036 675
Colorado 5.5% 1718 2.4% 4067 1300

 

AL Pennant FGProb FGML BWProb BWML 5DML
Cleveland 39.9% 151 52.1% -109 165
Houston 28.5% 251 12.7% 687 233
Boston 19.6% 410 24.7% 305 380
NY Yankees 9.1% 999 9.6% 942 550
Minnesota 2.9% 3348 0.9% 11011 1425

 

World Series FGProb FGML BW % BWML 5DML
Cleveland 23.9% 318 31.8% 214 325
LA Dodgers 16.8% 495 22.5% 344 360
Houston 15.8% 533 4.8% 1983 455
Washington 13.5% 641 17.2% 481 800
Chicago Cubs 11.0% 809 3.9% 2464 775
Boston 9.9% 910 11.7% 755 850
NY Yankees 4.0% 2400 4.1% 2339 1200
Arizona 2.4% 4067 3.4% 2841 1800
Colorado 1.6% 6150 0.5% 19900 3300
Minnesota 1.0% 9900 0.2% 49900 3300

 

 

 

According to the Fangraph’s projections, there is value with Cleveland and Washington. Our numbers echo this and it is a loud echo. We also like Boston a bit. The losers are Houston and Chicago Cubs, which could create a stir in the baseball hipster world.

 

Offensive Ratings

Let’s look at the offenses for all ten teams for four categories. The Basewinner run number is what we are showing here.

What this number shows is the projected performance of the team’s projected offensive lineup for each category compared to league average. This is projected for each team at a neutral park and assumes 75 degree sunny weather and no wind.

Let’s take an example from the chart to show what this number shows. The Houston Basewinner run number for Away vR, is 107.

What a 107 means is that based on Houston’s lineup projections and our ratings that go into this category, they will produce at 107% of league average.

If Houston plays against a league average (100) starting pitcher and bullpen with league average pitchers exclusively in this category, at a ballpark with league average park factors and a league average umpire, the will be expected to produce 1.07 x 4.35 runs (our MLB combo median/average) or 4.65 runs.

 

    Away   Home  
Team Combo vR vL vR vL
LA Dodgers 113 108 112 116 119
Washington 109 107 109 111 113
Chicago Cubs 101 98 102 103 106
Arizona 108 108 106 109 109
Colorado 94 91 95 94 98

 

    Away   Home  
Team Combo vR vL vR vL
Cleveland 103 101 101 104 104
Houston 109 107 110 109 114
Boston 110 106 111 110 116
NY Yankees 112 110 107 116 112
Minnesota 101 101 97 103 100

 

These are simply the team’s raw offensive number projections.

For the daily grind, our software “Crunches” these raw numbers with the other pertinent numbers involving pitching, park factors and umpire ratings to give us the true probability line for each game.

 

 

Bullpens

These are perhaps the most important numbers to know as post season success relies on quality pitching from the pen.

Our overall bullpen numbers combine long term projections and on recent performance over the last thirty days.

Our numbers are scaled to a plus/minus number so we can easily use them in our probability calculations. For pitching and defense, the lower the better.

The first columns are for the overall bullpen (weighted) and the second set (tp) is for the top half of the pen (closer and the two set up guys) which is a bit more relevant for the post season games.

L30 = last 30 days.

WLTPro = long term bullpen projection weighted so the top half has greater weight than the rest of pen.

It is interesting to note the percentage of high-quality bullpens from these teams.

Team WLTPro L30 Weighted Rank tpLTP tpL30 tpOV
ARI 94 94 94 16 90 92 90
BOS 88 59 82 4 75 48 70
CHC 77 93 80 3 76 74 76
CLE 79 58 75 2 69 43 64
COL 94 119 99 20 88 114 93
HOU 86 70 83 5 81 61 77
LAD 91 87 90 12 88 73 85
MIN 96 106 98 19 96 93 95
NYY 73 58 70 1 61 45 58
WAS 87 81 86 8 77 74 76

 

Starting Rotations

These are our projected numbers for the starters for each team. The BW number is a formula that uses K%, BB% and GB% and is adjusted for park and talent faced.

The BWR starting pitching number is the median of the BW number for the last 20 games. The lower the score the better.

The BWR number is scaled to PCT of projected runs allowed below/above to average. A pitcher with an 80 BWR is projected to suppress runs by 20%.

The H/A column is home/away splits over the last 20 games and is the median BWR of games in those splits.

The team rotation score is weighed so that the 1 man receives 33% of the grade and the other starters are weighed at 22% apiece.

 

 

Cleveland – 61

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Corey Kluber R 40 65 38
Carlos Carrasco R 55 64 54
Trevor Bauer R 78 78 79
Josh Tomliin R 82 79 86
Team   61 70 61

 

The Basewinner numbers love this rotation! This is the lowest combined number in the three years we have released the essential numbers. We think it is best that Kluber pitches on normal rest.

LA Dodgers – 72

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Clayton Kershaw L 69 66 70
Yu Darvish R 67 99 60
Alex Wood L 78 79 78
Kenta Maeda R 80 75 91
Team   72 77 73

 

The Basewinner numbers are still keen on this rotation and rate them #2.  Kershaw BWR took a small hit when we shifted to L20 baseline, but a capable staff can go man v. man against anyone.

 

Washington – 74

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Max Scherzer R 63 63 62
Stephen Strasburg R 58 61 58
Gio Gonzalez L 83 80 88
Tanner Roark R 102 101 112
Team   74 74 77

 

The #1 and #2 guys can duel with the best. Gio has been improving. Achilles is Roark and we may get some value if he faces Jose Q in Game 4 of NLDS.

 

Boston – 77

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Chris Sale L 47 66 41
Rick Porcello R 99 98 92
E-Rod L 86 102 76
Doug Fister R 94 82 105
Team   77 84 74

 

Sale is BW#2 and E-Rod rates strong by the BW figs. E-Rod’s number OTR are surprising and could be a robber in a game value steal.

Arizona – 80

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Zack Greinke R 68 66 85
Robbie Ray L 75 81 53
Zack Godley R 87 88 69
Taijuan Walker R 98 111 70
Team   80 83 70

 

The D’Backs rate well by our numbers. Unfortunately, they get the Dodgers in the first round and must burn Greinke in the silly one and done game.

 

Houston – 81

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Justin Verlander R 70 95 46
Dallas Keuchel L 90 92 88
Brad Peacock R 95 99 87
Charlie Morton R 79 92 63
Team   81 94 68

 

JV has improved in our ratings and the staff rates third best in the AL. Unfortunately, good chance they will end up playing against both rotations that rate higher if they manage to get past the Sox.

 

NY Yankees – 82

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Luis Severino R 73 78 60
Sonny Gray R 94 98 83
Masahiro Tanaka R 67 64 76
CC Sabathia L 100 96 103
Team   82 83 77

 

We have the best rating on their #3 man which is interesting but our numbers are normally kind to Masahiro and this post-season is no exception. Numbers are not too kind to Gray which for us is no surprise.

 

Colorado – 86

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Jon Gray R 72 81 70
Chad Bettis R 96 85 116
German Marquez R 105 63 134
Tyler Anderson L 84 69 95
Team   86 74 99

 

This rotation is decent by our numbers. They are much better at home than OTR which is unfortunate since they will not have the HFA.

 

Chicago Cubs – 88

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Jon Lester L 91 89 93
Kyle Hendricks R 92 96 69
Jake Arrieta R 98 111 81
Jose Quintana L 75 75 85
Team   88 91 82

 

This rotation is not poor but they are just playing in a post-season where their opponents rotations have tremendous talent. The strategy here will most likely play against Lester and play on Jose Q.

 

Minnesota -97

Pitcher TH BWR H A
Ervin Santana R 91 92 88
Jose Berrios R 88 83 120
Kyle Gibson R 99 104 87
Bartolo Colon R 119 109 115
Team   97 95 100

 

The worst rotation still alive. Should be short lived for this team. Make you wonder why a second wild card.

 

 

 

Individual Series Win PCT Projections

We simulated each potential playoff series to create our LCS and World Series projections. We thought we would share the projections prior to the playoffs starting. The first chart is Win probability by percentage.  The second chart is money line calculation.

You read from left to right so ARI win probability vs. Boston is 43.5%. Keep in mind projections during the playoffs could change a bit due to starting pitchers, lineup changes and other factors.

Team ARI BOS CHC CLE COL HOU LAD MIN NYY WAS
ARI   43.5% 57.0% 30.0% 61.5% 54.4% 32.7% 78.5% 49.5% 37.3%
BOS 56.5%   63.1% 35.4% 75.5% 59.9% 40.9% 81.6% 55.6% 45.0%
CHC 43.0% 36.9%   24.4% 63.1% 45.9% 29.0% 71.7% 42.1% 34.2%
CLE 70.0% 64.6% 75.6%   85.5% 74.0% 54.2% 86.8% 70.9% 60.4%
COL 38.5% 24.5% 36.9% 14.5%   34.0% 24.2% 59.3% 27.3% 20.9%
HOU 45.6% 40.1% 54.1% 26.0% 66.0%   31.4% 73.6% 43.9% 36.4%
LAD 67.3% 59.1% 71.0% 45.8% 75.8% 68.6%   87.0% 64.6% 52.4%
MIN 21.5% 18.4% 28.3% 13.2% 40.7% 26.4% 13.0%   32.6% 15.1%
NYY 50.5% 44.4% 57.9% 29.1% 72.7% 56.1% 35.4% 67.4%   40.7%
WAS 62.7% 55.0% 65.8% 39.6% 79.1% 63.6% 47.6% 84.9% 59.3%  

 

Team ARI BOS CHC CLE COL HOU LAD MIN NYY WAS
ARI   130 -133 233 -160 -119 206 -365 102 168
BOS -130   -171 182 -308 -149 144 -443 -125 122
CHC 133 171   310 -171 118 245 -253 138 192
CLE -233 -182 -310   -590 -285 -118 -658 -244 -153
COL 160 308 171 590   194 313 -146 266 378
HOU 119 149 -118 285 -194   218 -279 128 175
LAD -206 -144 -245 118 -313 -218   -669 -182 -110
MIN 365 443 253 658 146 279 669   207 562
NYY -102 125 -138 244 -266 -128 182 -207   146
WAS -168 -122 -192 153 -378 -175 110 -562 -146  

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusion

We backed the Dodger and Astros prior to the season with team win totals over. We also liked the Tribe in season. Will our thoughts change?

Cleveland

The numbers are very high on the Tribe. #1 rotation and #2 bully. Great value on the ALCS future still.

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers still have a scant bit of value but the bullpen has seen downgrades in the most recent updates and we had them at #12 of 30 at years end.

Houston

We were high on this team early but they just don’t rate out well in the series calculations. The issue is more about the quality of their opponents than the team.

Washington

Our numbers show value on this team. Great 1,2 and Gio has improving figs. Bullpen has crept up into the top 10 overall with the acquisitions.

Chicago Cubs

Once bitten twice shy?? Not for us. Last year’s team spoiled big prices in our post-season last year. Nothing to hate about this team. However, rates much higher by our figs.

Boston

Numbers are motivating here. #4 pen overall, #3 of team’s remaining offensively. Sale’s BWR is sub 50. We will keep eyes open for a spot.

NY Yankees

This is a nice team. However, they must win OTR vs. Cleveland and that will take some asking. They are taking some market money which is nice for our other looks.

Arizona

The D’backs have done nice things this year but they must burn Greinke in WC game. We could see some value in individual games but we agree with Fangraphs on the Snakes and see nothing attractive in the futures.

Colorado

We have them with a 2.4% chance to win the NL. Not much too like when compared to other options.

Minnesota

Why are they here??

 

 

Basewinner’s Official Pre-Playoff Selections (lines from 5dimes)

1 unit to win 1.65

+165 American League Pennant – Cleveland Indians

Tough to pass up this value with the deepest rotation in the game. This is a gift price. Our numbers give CLE a 52% chance to win and they are priced at 37.7%. Almost 15% value.

1 unit to win 3.3

+330 National League Pennant – Washington Nationals

Great 1,2 punch and they should get past CHC as we have them with a 65.8% chance to win this series. Numbers show true odds to win NLCS at 35.2%. They are priced at 23.3%. I’ll take the value.

Risk 2 units to win 1.46

Two team fade parlay:

25204 Field wins American League Pennant -260* vs Houston

25106 Field wins National League Pennant -400* vs Chicago Cubs

Cubs are (not surprisingly) over-priced and Houston must beat better teams and face Kluber and Sale.

  • Total Risked – 4 units
  • Potential Return – 6.38 units

 

Hope this helps your betting and handicapping endeavors!

Best… Basewinner

 

If you like deep analysis and well researched numbers for other sports check out our NFL and EPL products at ClearDataSports.com.

 

 

No Comments

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.