03 Oct 2017 MLB Playoffs: The Essential Number Guide
Join the BaseWinner as we review the key numbers for each team going into the MLB playoffs from a statistical perspective.
Every Playoff Team Updated & Rated:
- Starting Pitching
- Offensive lineups
- Betting Odds / Win Probabilities
Where is the value? We have both an AL & NL winner, along with a “will not win” parlay!
|World Series||FGProb||FGML||BW %||BWML||5DML|
According to the Fangraph’s projections, there is value with Cleveland and Washington. Our numbers echo this and it is a loud echo. We also like Boston a bit. The losers are Houston and Chicago Cubs, which could create a stir in the baseball hipster world.
Let’s look at the offenses for all ten teams for four categories. The Basewinner run number is what we are showing here.
What this number shows is the projected performance of the team’s projected offensive lineup for each category compared to league average. This is projected for each team at a neutral park and assumes 75 degree sunny weather and no wind.
Let’s take an example from the chart to show what this number shows. The Houston Basewinner run number for Away vR, is 107.
What a 107 means is that based on Houston’s lineup projections and our ratings that go into this category, they will produce at 107% of league average.
If Houston plays against a league average (100) starting pitcher and bullpen with league average pitchers exclusively in this category, at a ballpark with league average park factors and a league average umpire, the will be expected to produce 1.07 x 4.35 runs (our MLB combo median/average) or 4.65 runs.
These are simply the team’s raw offensive number projections.
For the daily grind, our software “Crunches” these raw numbers with the other pertinent numbers involving pitching, park factors and umpire ratings to give us the true probability line for each game.
These are perhaps the most important numbers to know as post season success relies on quality pitching from the pen.
Our overall bullpen numbers combine long term projections and on recent performance over the last thirty days.
Our numbers are scaled to a plus/minus number so we can easily use them in our probability calculations. For pitching and defense, the lower the better.
The first columns are for the overall bullpen (weighted) and the second set (tp) is for the top half of the pen (closer and the two set up guys) which is a bit more relevant for the post season games.
L30 = last 30 days.
WLTPro = long term bullpen projection weighted so the top half has greater weight than the rest of pen.
It is interesting to note the percentage of high-quality bullpens from these teams.
These are our projected numbers for the starters for each team. The BW number is a formula that uses K%, BB% and GB% and is adjusted for park and talent faced.
The BWR starting pitching number is the median of the BW number for the last 20 games. The lower the score the better.
The BWR number is scaled to PCT of projected runs allowed below/above to average. A pitcher with an 80 BWR is projected to suppress runs by 20%.
The H/A column is home/away splits over the last 20 games and is the median BWR of games in those splits.
The team rotation score is weighed so that the 1 man receives 33% of the grade and the other starters are weighed at 22% apiece.
Cleveland – 61
The Basewinner numbers love this rotation! This is the lowest combined number in the three years we have released the essential numbers. We think it is best that Kluber pitches on normal rest.
LA Dodgers – 72
The Basewinner numbers are still keen on this rotation and rate them #2. Kershaw BWR took a small hit when we shifted to L20 baseline, but a capable staff can go man v. man against anyone.
Washington – 74
The #1 and #2 guys can duel with the best. Gio has been improving. Achilles is Roark and we may get some value if he faces Jose Q in Game 4 of NLDS.
Boston – 77
Sale is BW#2 and E-Rod rates strong by the BW figs. E-Rod’s number OTR are surprising and could be a robber in a game value steal.
Arizona – 80
The D’Backs rate well by our numbers. Unfortunately, they get the Dodgers in the first round and must burn Greinke in the silly one and done game.
Houston – 81
JV has improved in our ratings and the staff rates third best in the AL. Unfortunately, good chance they will end up playing against both rotations that rate higher if they manage to get past the Sox.
NY Yankees – 82
We have the best rating on their #3 man which is interesting but our numbers are normally kind to Masahiro and this post-season is no exception. Numbers are not too kind to Gray which for us is no surprise.
Colorado – 86
This rotation is decent by our numbers. They are much better at home than OTR which is unfortunate since they will not have the HFA.
Chicago Cubs – 88
This rotation is not poor but they are just playing in a post-season where their opponents rotations have tremendous talent. The strategy here will most likely play against Lester and play on Jose Q.
The worst rotation still alive. Should be short lived for this team. Make you wonder why a second wild card.
Individual Series Win PCT Projections
We simulated each potential playoff series to create our LCS and World Series projections. We thought we would share the projections prior to the playoffs starting. The first chart is Win probability by percentage. The second chart is money line calculation.
You read from left to right so ARI win probability vs. Boston is 43.5%. Keep in mind projections during the playoffs could change a bit due to starting pitchers, lineup changes and other factors.
We backed the Dodger and Astros prior to the season with team win totals over. We also liked the Tribe in season. Will our thoughts change?
The numbers are very high on the Tribe. #1 rotation and #2 bully. Great value on the ALCS future still.
The Dodgers still have a scant bit of value but the bullpen has seen downgrades in the most recent updates and we had them at #12 of 30 at years end.
We were high on this team early but they just don’t rate out well in the series calculations. The issue is more about the quality of their opponents than the team.
Our numbers show value on this team. Great 1,2 and Gio has improving figs. Bullpen has crept up into the top 10 overall with the acquisitions.
Once bitten twice shy?? Not for us. Last year’s team spoiled big prices in our post-season last year. Nothing to hate about this team. However, rates much higher by our figs.
Numbers are motivating here. #4 pen overall, #3 of team’s remaining offensively. Sale’s BWR is sub 50. We will keep eyes open for a spot.
This is a nice team. However, they must win OTR vs. Cleveland and that will take some asking. They are taking some market money which is nice for our other looks.
The D’backs have done nice things this year but they must burn Greinke in WC game. We could see some value in individual games but we agree with Fangraphs on the Snakes and see nothing attractive in the futures.
We have them with a 2.4% chance to win the NL. Not much too like when compared to other options.
Why are they here??
Basewinner’s Official Pre-Playoff Selections (lines from 5dimes)
1 unit to win 1.65
+165 American League Pennant – Cleveland Indians
Tough to pass up this value with the deepest rotation in the game. This is a gift price. Our numbers give CLE a 52% chance to win and they are priced at 37.7%. Almost 15% value.
1 unit to win 3.3
+330 National League Pennant – Washington Nationals
Great 1,2 punch and they should get past CHC as we have them with a 65.8% chance to win this series. Numbers show true odds to win NLCS at 35.2%. They are priced at 23.3%. I’ll take the value.
Risk 2 units to win 1.46
Two team fade parlay:
25204 Field wins American League Pennant -260* vs Houston
25106 Field wins National League Pennant -400* vs Chicago Cubs
Cubs are (not surprisingly) over-priced and Houston must beat better teams and face Kluber and Sale.
- Total Risked – 4 units
- Potential Return – 6.38 units
Hope this helps your betting and handicapping endeavors!
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